Learning from the past in order to relearn from time and from signals that carry the future

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this study is to present a proposal for exploring urban futures through a chronological reflection framework articulated with PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) analysis, incorporating the interpretation of significant events using metaphors. Method: In this regard, futures methodologies are adapted to assign meaning to the past. The methodological proposal integrates chronological reflection, PESTEL analysis, and the use of metaphors as analytical devices to interpret the metamorphosis of risk within urban contexts. The exercise is applied to the analysis of the nearshoring phenomenon in the Chinese automotive sector in Mexico. Main Results: The study applies these approaches to urban environments exposed to the impacts of the Chinese automotive industry in Mexico. In doing so, it contributes to new ways of working with traditional planning frameworks and incorporates the metamorphosis of risk through metaphorical interpretation to achieve a reading more closely aligned with local urban complexity in the face of global economic challenges. Relevance / Originality: The relevance of this study lies in transferring the methodologies of futures studies to urban analysis, particularly in contexts exposed to global dynamics such as production relocation. Its originality consists in the use of metaphors as analytical tools, as well as in the reinterpretation of the risk metaphor of the Grey Rhinoceros as the Red Rhinoceros, to highlight the impact of the Chinese automotive industry in the Mexican case. Theoretical / Methodological Contributions: This theoretical–methodological exercise has been implemented in academic activities and, for the present case, is applied to the analysis of nearshoring in the Chinese automotive sector in Mexico to explore alternative ways of managing territory, particularly considering the global reality of nearshoring. Social / Management Contributions: The proposal provides input for territorial analysis and management, as well as for decision-making in uncertain urban contexts affected by nearshoring. It offers tools and methods to rethink how local contexts can respond to global challenges. It is worth noting that this methodology can be adapted to other fields in which decision-making management in complex and uncertain contexts is a priority.